CapEx Finance Index report for October 2025
Equipment finance demand unfazed by shutdown, on track for second-best year on record.
The latest CapEx Finance Index (CFI) released November 25 by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Association (ELFA) showed that new equipment demand in October hovered near its 2025 high, demonstrating resilience despite heightened market volatility.
Growth in total new business volumes (NBV) is expected to exceed $117 billion this year, positioning 2025 as one of the strongest years on record. ELFA industry watchers expect the Fed’s recent policy easing to foster additional momentum into next year, even if policymakers decide to pause cuts in December.
Financial conditions remain healthy across the industry:
- Total new business volume (NBV) among surveyed ELFA member companies was $10.5 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same amount as in the prior month.
- Year-to-date NBV contracted by 1.4 percent relative to the same period in 2024.
- Year-over-year, NBV increased by 5.7 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
“Equipment demand was unfazed by the government shutdown in October. The latest data showed businesses continue to invest despite a volatile and unpredictable fall,” says Leigh Lytle, president and CEO at ELFA. “At the current pace, 2025 will end up as the second-best year for equipment demand in the history of ELFA’s CFI survey, which goes back to 2006. We’re going to see momentum really build as we put the government shutdown further in the rearview. The path for interest rates remains uncertain, but that doesn’t change the fact that our industry is financially healthy, setting us up for a strong start to 2026.”
Equipment demand remained strong
Total NBV grew by $10.5 billion in October, the same increase as in the prior month, which tied the fastest pace in 2025. The total new volume series tracks the amount of new activity that banks, independents, and captives added in a given month. The strong October increase pushed the forecast for total new volume growth in 2025 to just over $117 billion, down from last year's record pace, but above the total amount recorded in 2023.
Small-ticket volume growth tracks broader economic conditions and is an important barometer of aggregate demand for equipment. Small-ticket deals grew by $3.7 billion, the largest increase since July 2024, and an increase of 13.0 percent from the prior month.
Of the three institution types, banks experienced the largest increase in new volumes in October, rising by $4.8 billion. Growth at captives and independents rose by $3.3 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively. Year-to-date new volume growth was up by 6.5 percent at banks relative to the first ten months of 2024, but down by 15.6 percent and 2.4 percent at captives and independents, respectively.
Overall credit approval rate hovers around its decade high
The industry-wide average ticked down to 79.0 percent in October, the second-highest reading since 2016. The average small-ticket approval rate dropped to 81.2 percent. It has declined for two consecutive months but remains above the average of 79.7 percent recorded during the first half of the year. The rate at banks rose to a record of 82.1 percent. The rate at captives fell to 82.0 percent, while the rate at independents rose to 70.7 percent.
Delinquencies rise but losses fall
The overall delinquency rate rose by 0.24 percentage points to 2.2 percent. The October increase more than offset the 0.19 percentage point decline in September. However, the overall rate has been holding in a narrow range since July of last year, and the October data remained in that narrow band. Delinquencies at independents rose sharply, while the average rate at banks rose, but was essentially unchanged at captives.
The overall loss rate declined by 0.04 percentage points to 0.44 percent in the latest data. It was the second decline in as many months and the lowest reading since May. The average loss rate for small ticket deals dropped to 0.57 percent. Loss rates declined slightly at all three major institution types.
Industry confidence
The Monthly Confidence Index from ELFA’s affiliate, the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, tracks the sentiment of executives in the industry. The index remains at a heightened level for the sixth consecutive month, relatively unchanged at 59.9 in November, from 60.1 in October.
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